What We Knew In May 2020

Revisiting COVID-19 white papers, one year later

May 2020 felt like a turning point.

From rescheduling trips to cancelling them. From “see you in three weeks!” to “see you in October? Maybe?” From scrambling to survive a new normal, to struggling to make sense of it.

As we realized that this crisis would last for months, if not years, a new quarantine coping mechanism emerged: future-forecasting. Nearly every major ad agency, consulting firm and think tank released some kind of study and list of predictions for the future. This repository of trend reports , compiled by Ci En Lee, became all the rage.

Nearly a year later, I’m revisiting a few that stood out to me.

The Prediction: Long-Haul Recovery

“Few people now believe in a V-shaped recovery. We’re looking at something more like a Nike swoosh.” — NYT Dealbook Webinar, May 2020

While economies bounced back after epidemics like SARS and MERS, those crises didn’t have the global implications of COVID-19. Last May, retail executives expected a return of store traffic to take months, and consumers planned to hunker down for a long recession.

2020 did bring the predicted ‘retail reckoning’ and other economic challenges. We’re also beginning to see the signs of economic recovery that many expected. But while these traditional indicators look optimistic, they’re fragile.

The pandemic has shone a bright, unflattering light on our traditional measures of economic success, challenging the very definition of “recovery.”

Those of us who didn’t know have quickly learned: the stock market is not the economy. The stock market remained relatively strong over the last year, even as industries stalled and many Americans struggled to make ends meet. This dissonance made people question the validity of our entire financial system — and, in turn, the way they think about their own money.

More folks are gambling on volatile new markets like bitcoin, NFTs, and meme-stocks, in part because they believe that traditional economic structures are designed to bolster hedge fund managers and Baby Boomer 401ks — not their future. People are no longer just looking for recovery — they’re betting on a revolution.

The Reality: Disruptive Economics
The market recovered, but people will never think about money the same way.

The Prediction: A Sea of Sameness

“In the short term, our cities will become more boring.”
— The Atlantic, April 2020

Even before the pandemic, city dwellers mourned the loss of small mom-and-pop businesses in their neighborhoods. Analysts worried that this big-business takeover would only continue in the aftermath of COVID-19, as large chains were much more likely to be resilient than smaller shops.

It’s true: one-third of New York’s small businesses may be gone forever. Meanwhile, Amazon’s profits have doubled, with Walmart and Target also posting record sales.

But idiosyncratic neighborhoods and cities won’t go quietly. In many ways, local culture has become more relevant than ever.

I see it in my neighborhood, where local businesses have pooled money to shut down Park Slope’s Fifth Avenue every Saturday and turn parking spots into community gathering spaces. Other New Yorkers see it in the innovation and resilience of outdoor dining structures, or in the rise of Zizmor-core — apparel that signals a deep identification with “the old New York.”

This determination to remain distinctive exists here in New York — but it’s elsewhere too. More prospective businesses were formed in 2020 than ever before, and people are determined to support them. These examples are the David to Amazon’s goliath. But they offer a glimmer of hope.

The Reality: Small Rebellions
Main Street USA won’t go down without a fight.

The Prediction: Norm-stalgia

“People don’t aspire to this new normal. They want to get back to normal.”
— Kantar, April 2020

A few reports last May made this caveat: while it’s exciting to imagine a brave new world post-pandemic, most people still yearn for what we had before. While the future may captivate trend hunters, the average American hopes that the world they return to feels closer to the one they left behind.

This “norm-stalgia” is a real and powerful force. It drives re-launches of beloved series, virtual versions of normal routines and other recreations of the familiar. It’s also what makes it difficult for us to confront change, even when that change is sorely needed.

The national reckoning after George Floyd’s murder pushed back on norm-stalgia. This past summer’s surge of activism taught many that to go back to normal would be to uphold a system that only works for some. It reminded us that the world we left behind wasn’t worth returning to.

I can’t deny that I yearn for some experiences that remind me of life before COVID-19. But now, I think about that yearning with a critical eye. Instagram, once a gallery of vacation photos, has become a hub of information: prompts for critical thinking, and resources for grassroots activism. “Systemic change” is part of mainstream discourse. There’s a lot of work to be done — but collectively, we’re less satisfied with staying the same.

The Reality: A National Reckoning
More people are thinking bigger than just “back to normal.”

Hindsight and 2020

A year ago, I remember feeling a glimmer of monoculture: a sense that our country was sharing an experience. We all grappled with an invisible enemy. We all directed our appreciation to the same place, clapping through open windows at 7 p.m. We all joked about toilet paper. We nearly all watched Tiger King on Netflix.

It doesn’t feel like that anymore. Masks, vaccines and social distancing are now just divisive weapons in the long-fought culture wars. The lasting effects of the crisis continue to impact lower-income and communities of color disproportionately, deepening inequalities that have existed for generations.

The future I read about in white papers fit neatly into pithy paragraphs. But reality has been messier than any futurist could plan for.

Last year’s trend reports and articles captured the truth in broad strokes. The influence of the stock market, the dominance of mega-businesses, the power of social inertia…these things aren’t going anywhere.

But looking back at the first year of this pandemic, it’s clear that we underestimated how much people would push back. For every doomsday prediction, there are groups of individuals fighting for a different outcome.

That’s why I hope the rest of 2021 brings more surprises. The things that change the world for the better are much harder to predict.